Monday, February 14, 2011

Immediate Volatile Prices, Expected Limited Availability, and Mediocre Quality at Best

"Good Things Come From Sysco" is the company slogan for Sysco Inc. It distributes frozen foods, various canned and dry foods, fresh and frozen meats, seafood and poultry, imported specialties, and fresh produce. The company also supplies various non-food items, including disposable napkins, plates, and cups; tableware, cookware, restaurant and kitchen equipment, and cleaning supplies.
Delivering food to Kelowna, BC
 They have many large warehouses throughout Canada, USA and Mexico but they store LTI (long term items) while the fruit and veggies are shipped direct.
Not all produce is created equal. So grocery store chains bid on quality and arrival dates. So, say, Zehrs always gets better tomatoes, then Safeway, then the 'super value' stores and the locals usually get the worst quality produce.
They supply us with what we eat when it is out of season.
Which worries me when I get a link to a PDF file they sent out to their customers 6 days ago titled "Mexico's Big Freeze" - Download.
ALL OF OUR GROWERS HAVE INVOKED THE ACT OF GOD CLAUSE ON OUR CONTRACTS DUE TO THE FOLLOWING RELEASE. WE WILL BE CONTACTING YOU PERSONALLY TO REVIEW HOW THIS WILL AFFECT OUR CONTRACTED ITEMS WITH YOU GOING FORWARD.
Heh heh heh. I'm sorry - what? Act of God. Are you serious? Yes.
Act of God is a legal term for events outside of human control, such as sudden floods or other natural disasters, for which no one can be held responsible.
-Wikipedia
Ok, so we sue the big guy upstairs and he provides us with bounty-full crops in an Eden like environment. Or he just doesn't show up to the courtroom and we are all royally screwed.
THE EXTREME FREEZING TEMPERATURES HIT A VERY BROAD SECTION OF MAJOR GROWING REGIONS IN MEXICO, FROM HERMOSILLO IN THE  NORTH ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO LOS MOCHIS AND EVEN SOUTH OF CULIACAN. THE EARLY REPORTS ARE STILL COMING IN BUT MOST ARE SHOWING LOSSES OF CROPS IN THE RANGE OF 80 TO 100%.
That can't be good. So what does this mean? What crops are going to supply all of North America for the rest of the winter with 0% to 20% of their regular supply?
Digital Journal Article 80-100% Loss - LINK
GREEN BEANS, EGGPLANT, CUCUMBERS, SQUASH, PEPPERS, ASPARAGUS, AND ROUND AND ROMA TOMATOES.
I need tomatoes and peppers for my Pizza. If most of the tomatoes are destroyed the ones left over are going to be... "Mediocre Quality at Best"
Ugh.
I'll just buy my tomatoes from somewhere else like the State of Flo*.

FLORIDA NORMALLY IS A MAJOR SUPPLIER FOR THESE ITEMS AS WELL BUT THEY HAVE ALREADY BEEN STRUCK WITH SEVERE FREEZE DAMAGE IN DECEMBER AND JANUARY AND UP UNTIL NOW HAVE HAD TO PURCHASE PRODUCT OUT OF MEXICO TO FILL THEIR COMMITMENTS, THAT IS NO LONGER AN OPTION.
*rida. Ah come on. Florida too? Well, winter can't last forever. Why not just wait it out and grow all over again?
SOME GROWERS ARE MEETING WITH THEIR BOARDS RIGHT NOW TO DETERMINE WHETHER THEY SHOULD IMMEDIATELY RE-PLANT, HOPING FOR A HARVEST BY LATE-MARCH-TO EARLY-APRIL, OR WHETHER THEY SHOULD DISC THE FIELDS UNDER AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER SEASON.
It's called a PiPizzaZza. True Story.
So that could mean that there is a shortage all year LONG!? Do you know how often I eat pizza? Without tomato sauce I'm basically eating vegetable bread. And the "mediocre at best" tomatoes will cost a heck of a lot more. Every restaurant will be competing for the best; prices are going to go up on my beloved round delight.


If only I had known! If only I could go back and do it over again; eat each pizza - over again.
I'd do things different. I'd have bought a shit load of canned tomato sauce when it was on sale for a dollar. Now it's going to cost around $8-$15 for the same size but poorer quality. Why lord why?!

But I did.
I bought a bunch when they were on sale. And I'm going to go out and buy a LOT more at Costco. The canned tomatoes are still the good quality produce and will last for a couple years. I'll also go out and buy some fresh stuff at the super market if it's still available and try and can 'em and vac-seal them for later. I'm also growing my own this summer so I should be able to weather this shortage without it costing me too much extra.
It's like investing in real tangible commodities. I buy a can for a $1 and in 4 months it is worth $8 - that's an 800% return! That's almost as good as a ponzi scheme!

Wheat increase from May 09 to Jan 11
Lets look at what the world food crisis is going to do to Pizza.
  • Flour is going up because of demand and drought.
  • Cheese is going up because of corn and wheat prices.
  • Tomatoes and peppers are going to be rare for 3-4 months or longer.
  • Pepperoni is going up because of corn and wheat prices.
What's a Ninja Turtle to eat? Master Splinter didn't teach anything about food preparation dude.






I do have 2 more graphs to post. One is funny and the other one isn't. You decide which. You can either join the red side of awesomeness and invest in some food insurance now while it's available and cheap or join the blue side of government hand outs.

Broke and Hungry - LINK



                      
I've tried to back up all my facts with links.
This isn't meant to be a scare story either.
The scare store would be posted 3 months from now when I talk about how I read food prices were going up and didn't do anything and how I'm eating $50 medium Pizza that tastes like garbage. That's scary.
This isn't going to happen. It already HAS happened. It's just takes a little time to catch up to us.

This is meant to help out all of my readers (shout out to Dave, Amanda and my mom - lol) so we can enjoy good quality food at a reasonable price.


Store what you eat and eat what you store.

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